Thursday, December 31, 2009

Weekly 3LB Update for week ending 12/31/09

Weekly 3LB update (week ending 12/31/09)
a new high or low will change the reversal price and the midpoint

SPX -no change
trend=up
rev= 1093.48; mid= 1109.98
monthly info new high
trend=up; rev= 1020.62; mid= 1067.86

Chart of SPX:


Dow Jones -no change
trend=up
rev= 10318.16; mid= 10419.13
monthly new high
trend=up; rev= 9712.28; mid= 10070.17


Nasdaq Comp -no change (still above weekly 233sma)
trend=up
rev= 2167.88; mid= 2226.79
monthly info new high
trend=up; rev= 2009.06; mid= 2139.11

Chart of Nasdaq Comp:


DXY -new high
trend=up;
rev= 75.75; mid= 76.81
monthly info -no change
trend=down; rev= 78.15; mid=76.52

Chart of DXY:


Gold -no change
trend=up
rev= 1095.70; mid= 1134.95
monthly info -no change
trend=up; rev= 978.80; mid= 1079.95

Chart of Gold:


10 Year -no change (almost had a reversal)
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 38.62; mid= 35.37

30 Year -no change (bearish thrusting candle so yield should keep increasing)
trend=no; direction=up (1 bar)
rev= 40.11; mid= 43.49


SLV -no change (sitting just above reversal...warning)
trend=up
rev= 16.50; mid= 17.36

BAC -no change (trading below mid...again and again and again and again)
trend=down
rev= 17.46; mid= 16.02

AXP -no change
trend=up
rev= 37.21; mid= 39.45

AMZN -no change (ALMOST a dark cloud but it's a bearish thrusting candle)
trend=up
rev= 126.20; mid= 132.34


M -no change (had a weekly reversal but still needs confirmation week. Still not confirmed after 4 weeks)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 19.82; mid= 17.90


VIX -no change (trading above trend line)
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 30.69; mid= 25.08
Chart of VIX:


XLF -no change (trading above mid now)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar for 9 weeks)
rev= 15.24; mid=14.65

BKX -no change (still trading below mid)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar for 9 weeks)
rev= 47.69, mid= 44.96

WTI Crude Oil -no change (Bullish piercing on candle 2 weeks ago. confirmed last week. closed higher this week)
trend=up
rev= 68.44; mid= 74.47
Chart of WTI:


Powershares USD Bull (UUP) -new high
trend=up
rev=22.32; mid=22.70
Chart of UUP:


Goldman Sachs -no change
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 189.30; mid= 176.10

TLT -no change (possible morning star on weekly candle)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 99.01; mid= 94.36
Chart of TLT:


Apple Computer -new high (possible evening star. getting congested)
trend=up
rev= 203.94; mid= 207.34
Chart of AAPL:


Sugar #11 -no change
trend=up
rev= 23.91; mid= 25.50
monthly info -new high
trend=up; rev= 16.81; mid= 21.88

Chart of Sugar #11:

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

S&P Yearly Closes

After going through the yearly closes for the S&P the 3LB range is 1469.25 to 740.74 with 1105.00 as the midpoint. So 1105 (IMO) is more important than 1121 (50% retrace). Just thought I'd toss that out there.

After some thought I think I still prefer the monthly 3LB to define the long term trend. There's so much that can happen in a year that gets missed using only yearly closes. So now having said that the current monthly 3LB for the S&P has a reversal of 987.48 and a midpoint of 1041.56. These will change as this month ends (kind of like a trailing stop).