UST & Fed may be tested at 10 year auction

Bouncing off the 50% retrace and may indicate auction is in trouble.

Daily Ruminations: Profit Taking or rush to the exits?

SPX long down day candle but the lower shadow indicates buyers are fighting back. Did get a daily 3lb reversal down though.

GOLD bearish engulfing (but I'd prefer a higher open). Weekly candle forming a bearish harami. Trading back below weekly 3lb mid.

WTI major down day (long closed candle). Yesterday it closed below trendline formed from 12/14/09 & 12/21/09. no daily 3lb reversal and still trading above weekly 3lb mid.

DXY high wave candle (lots of volatility). Not a doji but a small body candle. It's trending down on the daily 3lb but still above the weekly 3lb mid (76.81).

SPX:


GOLD:


WTI:


DXY:

Weekly 3LB Update for week ending 1/8/10

Weekly 3LB update (week ending 1/8/09)
a new high or low will change the reversal price and the midpoint

SPX -new high
trend=up
rev= 1105.98; mid= 1125.48
Chart of SPX:


Dow Jones -new high
trend=up
rev= 10388.90; mid= 10503.55

Nasdaq Comp -new high
trend=up
rev= 2194.35; mid= 2255.76
Chart of Nasdaq Comp:


DXY -no change
trend=up;
rev= 75.75; mid= 76.81
Chart of DXY:


Gold -no change (but is back trading above the mid)
trend=up
rev= 1095.70; mid= 1134.95
Chart of Gold 100 oz:


10 Year -no change (almost had a reversal...twice)
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 38.62; mid= 35.37

30 Year -no change
trend=no; direction=up (1 bar)
rev= 40.11; mid= 43.49


SLV -no change (now approaching previous weekly high)
trend=up
rev= 16.50; mid= 17.36

BAC -no change (trading above mid)
trend=down
rev= 17.46; mid= 16.02

AXP -new high
trend=up
rev= 40.35; mid= 41.15

AMZN -no change (bearish thrusting candle last week. confirmed this week)
trend=up
rev= 126.20; mid= 132.34


M -no change (had a weekly reversal but still needs confirmation week. Still not confirmed after 5 weeks)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 19.82; mid= 17.90


VIX -new low
trend=down
rev= 23.09; mid= 20.61
Chart of VIX:


XLF -no change (almost had a reversal and closed just below needed price)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar for 10 weeks)
rev= 15.24; mid=14.65

BKX -no change (alomst had a reversal and closed very close to needed price)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar for 10 weeks)
rev= 47.69, mid= 44.96

WTI Crude Oil -new high
trend=up
rev= 73.89; mid= 78.32
Chart of WTI:


Powershares USD Bull (UUP) -no change
trend=up
rev=22.32; mid=22.70

Goldman Sachs -no change (still below mid)
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 189.30; mid= 176.10

TLT -new low
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 99.01; mid= 94.15
Chart of TLT:


Apple Computer -new high
trend=up
rev= 204.45; mid= 208.22

Sugar #11 -new high
trend=up
rev= 24.00; mid= 25.77
Chart of Sugar #11:

Weekly 3LB Update for week ending 12/31/09

Weekly 3LB update (week ending 12/31/09)
a new high or low will change the reversal price and the midpoint

SPX -no change
trend=up
rev= 1093.48; mid= 1109.98
monthly info new high
trend=up; rev= 1020.62; mid= 1067.86
Chart of SPX:


Dow Jones -no change
trend=up
rev= 10318.16; mid= 10419.13
monthly new high
trend=up; rev= 9712.28; mid= 10070.17

Nasdaq Comp -no change (still above weekly 233sma)
trend=up
rev= 2167.88; mid= 2226.79
monthly info new high
trend=up; rev= 2009.06; mid= 2139.11
Chart of Nasdaq Comp:


DXY -new high
trend=up;
rev= 75.75; mid= 76.81
monthly info -no change
trend=down; rev= 78.15; mid=76.52
Chart of DXY:


Gold -no change
trend=up
rev= 1095.70; mid= 1134.95
monthly info -no change
trend=up; rev= 978.80; mid= 1079.95
Chart of Gold:


10 Year -no change (almost had a reversal)
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 38.62; mid= 35.37

30 Year -no change (bearish thrusting candle so yield should keep increasing)
trend=no; direction=up (1 bar)
rev= 40.11; mid= 43.49


SLV -no change (sitting just above reversal...warning)
trend=up
rev= 16.50; mid= 17.36

BAC -no change (trading below mid...again and again and again and again)
trend=down
rev= 17.46; mid= 16.02

AXP -no change
trend=up
rev= 37.21; mid= 39.45

AMZN -no change (ALMOST a dark cloud but it's a bearish thrusting candle)
trend=up
rev= 126.20; mid= 132.34


M -no change (had a weekly reversal but still needs confirmation week. Still not confirmed after 4 weeks)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 19.82; mid= 17.90


VIX -no change (trading above trend line)
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 30.69; mid= 25.08
Chart of VIX:


XLF -no change (trading above mid now)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar for 9 weeks)
rev= 15.24; mid=14.65

BKX -no change (still trading below mid)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar for 9 weeks)
rev= 47.69, mid= 44.96

WTI Crude Oil -no change (Bullish piercing on candle 2 weeks ago. confirmed last week. closed higher this week)
trend=up
rev= 68.44; mid= 74.47
Chart of WTI:


Powershares USD Bull (UUP) -new high
trend=up
rev=22.32; mid=22.70
Chart of UUP:


Goldman Sachs -no change
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 189.30; mid= 176.10

TLT -no change (possible morning star on weekly candle)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 99.01; mid= 94.36
Chart of TLT:


Apple Computer -new high (possible evening star. getting congested)
trend=up
rev= 203.94; mid= 207.34
Chart of AAPL:


Sugar #11 -no change
trend=up
rev= 23.91; mid= 25.50
monthly info -new high
trend=up; rev= 16.81; mid= 21.88
Chart of Sugar #11:

S&P Yearly Closes

After going through the yearly closes for the S&P the 3LB range is 1469.25 to 740.74 with 1105.00 as the midpoint. So 1105 (IMO) is more important than 1121 (50% retrace). Just thought I'd toss that out there.

After some thought I think I still prefer the monthly 3LB to define the long term trend. There's so much that can happen in a year that gets missed using only yearly closes. So now having said that the current monthly 3LB for the S&P has a reversal of 987.48 and a midpoint of 1041.56. These will change as this month ends (kind of like a trailing stop).

Not sure about the rest of the Tech Sector but AAPL is doing just fine

...for now

AAPL -new high
trend=up
rev= 190.47; mid= 199.76

Recent low was 78.20 on 1/20/09.
Using fibonacci we see that AAPL had resistance at the 1.618% of 204.73. It tested that level for five weeks before finally closing above it this week. Next fibonacci level is 2.058% at 239.14 and 2.618% at 282.93.

Chart of AAPL:

Weekly 3LB Update for week ending 12/24/09

Weekly 3LB Update (for week ending 12/24/09)
a new weekly high or low will change the reversal price and the midpoint

SPX -new high
trend=up
rev= 1093.48; mid= 1109.98
Chart of SPX:


Dow Jones -new high
trend=up
rev= 10318.16; mid= 10419.13

Nasdaq Comp -new high also closed above weekly 233sma
trend=up
rev= 2167.88; mid= 2226.79
Chart of Nasdaq Comp:


DXY -no change
trend=up
rev= 75.28; mid= 76.52
Chart of DXY:


Gold -no change (still trading below mid. almost had a weekly reversal)
trend=up
rev= 1095.70; mid= 1134.95
Chart of Gold:
see chart from 12/11/09

10 Year -no change (getting close to reversal)
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
rev= 38.62; mid= 35.37

30 Year -weekly reversal
trend=no; direction=up
rev= 40.11; mid= 43.49
Chart of TYX:


SLV -no change (still trading below mid)
trend=up
rev= 16.50; mid= 17.36

BAC -no change (trading below mid...again and again and again)
trend=down
rev= 17.46; mid= 16.02

AXP -new high (finally broke through to new highs)
trend=up
rev= 37.21; mid= 39.45

AMZN -new high
trend=up
rev= 126.20; mid= 132.34
Chart of AMZN:


M -no change (had a weekly reversal but still needs a confirmation week. Still not confirmed after 3 weeks)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 19.82; mid= 17.90


VIX -new low (weekly reversal 3 weeks ago. had confirmation this week)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar after 2 weeks)
rev= 30.69; mid= 25.08
Chart of VIX:


XLF -no change (still trading below mid)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar for 9 weeks)
rev= 15.24; mid=14.65

BKX -no change (still trading below mid)
trend=no; direction=down (1 bar for 9 weeks)
rev= 47.69, mid= 44.96

WTI Crude Oil -no change (Bullish piercing on last weeks candle. confirmed this week)
trend=up
rev= 68.44; mid= 74.47
Chart of WTI:


Powershares USD Bull (UUP) -new high (looks like congestion. rally may have run out of steam.)
trend=no; direction=up
rev=22.26; mid=22.65
Chart of UUP:


Goldman Sachs (had a weekly reversal 4 weeks ago. finally confirmed last week. will it trend this week? so far no.)
trend=no; direction=down
rev= 189.30; mid= 176.10
Chart of GS:
see chart from 12/18/09